Uncertainty in business is just part of the game. After years of helping business leaders make solid decisions with incomplete information, I’ve come to see uncertainty as the starting point that should not be feared.

The real question for any leader is how to take advantage of uncertainty rather than waiting for the perfect moment to act, because FYI: There is no such thing as a “perfect moment to act.”

What Basketball Teaches About Business Decisions

I’ve always been a fan of professional basketball, and I see strong parallels between the game and the business world. In both arenas, you assess risk, make timely decisions, and commit to action even when the outcome is uncertain.

Take Luka Dončić as an example.

For anyone less familiar with the sport, Luka is one of the NBA’s brightest young stars, capable of transforming a franchise’s future. His team, the Dallas Mavericks, found itself at a strategic crossroads: Should they commit long-term to a generational talent, knowing the cost and risks of a major contract, or consider a more flexible path that could position them for the future?

The Mavericks opted for action over inertia.

Instead of waiting and letting the situation dictate their options, they made the tough call to re-evaluate their direction while Luka’s value was at its peak. Their decision wasn’t easy, but it preserved their flexibility and opened up new possibilities.

Often, the opportunity lies in making a difficult decision before circumstances force your hand. Another key concept is that if one puts themselves in a position with very little flexibility to pursue opportunities whenever they show up, competitors will surely swoop in.

Acting Under Uncertainty: The Office Lease Example

This logic holds true far beyond sports. I remember serving on the executive committee of a professional services firm as the COVID-19 pandemic was emerging. We had spent nearly a year searching for new office space and were close to finalizing terms with our current landlord.

Then, the world changed overnight.

Our team faced a decision with enormous uncertainty: Do we sign a ten-year lease at the height of a global crisis, or do we negotiate a short extension and revisit the question in a year?

The argument for waiting was compelling. No one knew how long the pandemic would last or how it would reshape office life. However, after much debate, using a broader lens and accepting that the disruption would not last forever, we chose to move forward. We negotiated additional concessions and secured a lease on favorable terms. Effectively, we leveraged a negative situation into a stronger negotiating position.

In hindsight, our space is less occupied than we once planned, but the financial outcome has been positive relative to current market rates. The alternative of waiting for complete clarity would likely have meant fewer options and a higher price tag.

Opportunity Hides Behind Uncertainty

Most organizations default to caution when the future is unclear. The problem is that markets, competitors, and customers don’t wait for us to make up our minds.

When you’re facing a difficult decision, I suggest asking yourself the following:

• What’s the cost of waiting? Inaction may limit your options or force your hand later when circumstances could be less favorable.
• Am I only seeing the extremes? Your fears and hopes can distort the actual range of likely outcomes.
• What are the trade-offs—not just today, but over the long term? Ask how this decision will shape your organization in the years ahead.
• Have I accurately articulated my thought process to an engaged leadership team, mentor, or other trusted resource? In addition, have I listened carefully to their feedback, including those who may push back on my conclusion? If so, then the time has come to move forward.
• After that time, the full organization needs to hear the decision along with a concise version of the thought process that led to it.

Communication as a Tool for Trust

When decisions have to be made in the fog, your team wants to know how you’re approaching the problem. I’ve found it valuable to share the reasoning, the constraints, and the trade-offs. People don’t need every detail, but they need to feel included in the process.

Transparency about uncertainty and a steady hand foster trust even when outcomes aren’t guaranteed.

Shape the Future Before it Shapes You

Uncertainty in business isn’t a signal to sit on your hands. It’s an invitation to act with discipline and awareness. Whether trading a franchise player or signing a lease, remember that no decision can easily be the riskiest decision.

If you’re wrestling with an uncertain decision, consider what inaction might cost you and when the window for opportunity might close.